Syria: Chemical Weapons – What Can the International Community Do?

The Syria conflict has gained renewed intensity after the al-Assad regimes announced its willingness to utilize its stockpile of chemical weapons if the international community were to militarily involve itself; thus ensuring that international activity in the region will not surpass mere sanctions and also suggests that the al-Assad regime may be feeling the pressure of the various opposition groups within Syria.

Despite the Confirmation of Biological Weapons, the International Community Still Can’t Do Anything

Though Syria’s arsenal of chemical weapons has been an open secret for the past 4 decades, the Assad’s regime’s announcement is a direct confirmation that Syria does indeed have a chemical weapons arsenal at their disposal.  The announcement targeted the international community, stating that if any foreign intervention in Syria’s civil war would be met with the deployment of chemical weapons.  The weapons include mustard and sarin gases, as well as cyanide, and are capable of being deployed by aircraft, surface-to-air missiles and rockets.  The announcement has sparked renewed animosity towards the regime, as well as towards the eastern powers that still persist in supporting the Assad regime, such as Russia and China.  Though the announcement does spark another international dilemma to be confronted if the community were to begin renewed intervention-talks, it does not present any new looming threat for the opposition groups still fighting throughout the Syrian country.  As the perpetuating conflict in Aleppo demonstrates, the opposition groups are utilizing a hit-and-run, urban-guerrilla warfare against the security forces of the regime.  The chemical weapons are poorly suited for such close-quarters style combat; rather, these weapons are generally most effective against mass formations in open country.  This does pose a problem for neighboring anti-Assad countries, such as Turkey.  Turkey has remained a proponent of direct military involvement and has, in the past, deployed reinforcing troops along its borders and has run military-training exercises as a show of force.  So saying, the foreign powers that constitute the ‘Friends of Syria’ contact group are those most threatened by the weapons and it is for this reason that the recurring hopes for further foreign assistance to the people of Syria will most likely dwindle away again.  Nevertheless, Assad forces have killed more than 15,000 protesters in an attempt to repress what it has called a ‘foreign conspiracy’.  Thus the efforts of diplomacy, embodied by the UN’s Annan plan, have gone nowhere and the humanitarian catastrophe escalates.

“No chemical or biological weapons will every be used.  Unless Syria is exposed to external aggression.” – Jihad Madkissi, Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman

Russia, a remaining ally for the Syrian dictator, has refused to budge on its stance against unilateral international action, but they have also warned Assad against using the chemical weapons.  Russia’s defense of Assad can be explained by merely pointing a finger at the current President, that being Putin.  The repression enforced in Russia during the first round of presidential elections represents elements of the Stalin-esque era, as well as the heavy-handedness supporting by Russia and represented by Assad in Syria.  Combined with the installment of loyal office-holders in the regime by Putin, the regidity of the country to liberalization is evident.  So saying, Syria also represents to Russia its last stronghold in the Middle East and is also part of a lucrative bilateral trade agreement, thus making Russia very reluctant to lose such an ally.  Many have stated that if Russia were to withdraw its veto on any and all UN measures, then the international community would be able to respond with force against Assad.  However, the complexities of involvement go beyond the mere reluctance of Russia and the American gun-ho attitude of invasion without knowledge, as in Iraq, cannot be the strategy taken.  If Russia were to continue maintaining strong ties to the Assad regime whilst the international community launched a Libyan-style intervention, the result would be a proxy struggle mired in a protracted civil war.  With great powers funding militias on both sides, entering a period of escalated violence, civilian casualties would dwarf the already high numbers currently.  The situation then would not resemble the relatively successful Libyan intervention, but more so that of the Lebanon civil war which resulted in over 150,000 deaths over decades long span.  So saying, an internationally involved military conflict would not provide the sought after government transition.  As of now the Obama Administration, despite hot-headed criticism from GOP Presidential candidate Romney, has taken the correct diplomatic path towards Russia.  The American government continues to try and persuade Russia, if not to join the Friends of Syria contact group, then at leas ease its objections to sanctions.  The recurring request comes after another recent UN resolution for sanctions was vetoed by both Russia and China.  Nevertheless, even without Russia, the current sanctions and embargoes will bankrupt the Syrian regime – just not as swiftly as desired.

“Our duty today as Syrians is to unify for one goal, and that is to make our country free and democratic.” – Manaf Tlass, Free Syrian Army Brigade General

As said before, much blame for a lack of direct action by the Western community, is directed as Russia.  If Russia were to remove its support for Assad and thus allow the international community an unhindered approach to do as it pleases, the situation in Syria as a whole still represents a variable that is nigh unconquerable.  The international community was able to involve itself in Libya because it was a large country with a small population, allowing the rebel forces there to capture a significant stronghold.  Syria is roughly one-tenth the size of Libya and it has 3 times as many people.  Moreover, the rebel forces in Syria have not been able to take control of any significant part of the country.  A majority of the Syrian population lives in or around Damascus and Aleppo, both of which remain under the regime’s general control.  The Syrian rebels have been able to launch sporadic attacks, but poor organization and a lack of unity has made expansion and coordination impossible.  Elements of al-Qaeda and other religious extremists are fighting with the rebels, as well as members of the country’s various minority groups – Christian, Druze and Kurdish groups.  This divided group stands under the umbrella name of the Syrian National Council, which faces a loyal Alawite hierarchy.  There has been no signs of high-level dissent, mainly due to the connection between the Alawite dictator and the fact that all key military and intelligence posts are held by Shi’ites as well.  There loyalists have remained supportive because they know that in a post-Assad Syria, they will likely be massacred.  The scenario was seen in Libya where Qaddafi loyalists were executed without trial.  Evidently, the Assad regime still remains military strong and thus an international-militaristic-coalition would not be the correct response to topple the regime.

“It would be morally far more satisfying to do something dramatic that would topple Assad tomorrow.  But starving his regime might prove the more effective strategy.” – Fareed Zakaria, Editor-at-Large of TIME Magazine

In retrospect, the international community must stand behind its current plan to constrict the Syrian regime financially, through a series of stricter embargoes and sanctions.  Though Russia and China remain allies to Bashar al-Assad, their support is not the key element in keeping the international community from entering into Syrian with guns blazing.  The reality is that the international community cannot, or at least should not, become militarily involved because of the uncertainty of the Syrian situation represented by a fractured opposition and because Assad does hold a key deterrence tool, that being a large arsenal of chemical and biological weapons.

 

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8 responses to “Syria: Chemical Weapons – What Can the International Community Do?

  1. Pingback: #Syria: #Chemical Weapons – What Can the International Community Do? | Year of 1989 | Elv Studio

  2. The international community is hopeless and divided when it comes to Syria and off course Russia is more worried about losing its base in Tartus than the Syrian people.

  3. Pingback: Chemical international | Myfeedbackonli

  4. Have you considered why there is such a huge difference in the attitudes towards Syria and Bahrain? And Saudi Arabia?

    Why is Democracy in Syria so important when it is not in Bahrain nor Saudi? Simply becuase war on Syria is not about Democracy at all… it is about Iran!!!

    • I do like your viewpoint on the matter. Syria has become the prime focus of the international community because of the significance between the Assad and Iran connection. Syria is essentially a powder keg for the Middle East because of its cultural/military connection with Iran.
      But to address Saudi Arabia….the US does not even address the issue of implementing democracy because of its lucrative oil deal with the monarchy therein established. Every now and again you will see condemnations for the mistreatment of women, as well as praise for any minor illustration of liberal attitude (such as the release of a woman condemned to death). The lack of American focus on the lack of democracy is because a democracy therein established would hurt America – loss of oil and ability to exploit the country for its oil. Also, Saudi Arabia does not have any significant connections to troublesome powerhouse in the region, like Syria does with Iran.
      In the end, I agree with what you say.

      • I appreciate your agreement – few Americans would admit that – I am glad I have found one who does.

        What do you think of the Bahrain issue? Again it is the personal interest of the US (the military base + the oil) that dictates its attitude towards the nation. Would it then be wrong to say that the US does not really care about democracy in Syria at all… all it wants to do is to break this ‘axis of evil / resistance’.

        And why do you think they are so keen to get rid of this axis / or in particular Iran? when in the history of Iran it has not been aggressive to a single country http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10150980408603603&set=a.10150166600368603.307916.114174778602&type=1.

        What does it really want?

      • I have not looked into the details of the Bahrain situation, but I believe I can answer your question generally. I have a tab entitled “Imperialism”. If you look into the posts therein, you will notice that I suggest that America’s foreign interests are not dictated by a moral law/code of ethics; but rather a capitalist interest that is dictated by narrow-minded business leaders. The US has a reputation of installing dictatorships and overthrowing democracy in many countries. The reason behind this is because a popularly elected governments is subject to the will of its people. Those people are hardly ever in favor of an American presence, certainly not one as dominating and exploitative as the American one is usually. As your picture suggests, America has periodically gone into foreign nations based on corporate interests.
        Latin America, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are very evident illustrations.
        The Arab Spring is a movement that is dedicated to the usurpation of leaders that were implemented under American approval. Qaddafi and Mubarak are two primary totalitarian examples who were installed and supported by the US. Most of our support for Mubarak was because of Israel, a country whose democratic values include military repression of Palestinian settlement camps. In Chomsky’s book, entitled “Hegemony or Survival”, it tells of Israeli troops (with US/UK) support marching into settlement camps and killing unarmed civilians. One Reuters reporter told of a man in a wheelchair who, unable to move, was mauled over by a US supplied tank.
        I must beg the question then, what is the difference between the Russian support of Syrian troops and US support of Israeli brutes?
        So, as you can see, I am not the typical American whose blind allegiance to the US is modeled after evening news, pro-blind patriotism, propaganda.
        As to Syria and the US intentions therein, I cannot conclude concretely that there is not a “care” about the implementation of democracy. I do believe the US is interested in the implementation of said democracy, because that would prove a significant shift in geopolitical strategy in the region. Libya is demonstrating a solid pro-left liberal tendency in much of its recent government initiatives, which is in the US favor. I believe that it is the long-term strategy of these transitioning governments that the US is focused on. As you said, it does aim to break the “axis of evil” that has been in existence in the Middle East since the US (if I may be so blunt) screwed things up decades ago. They are interested in democracy as a mechanism for this geopolitical strategy. Now, of course saying “the people of Syria” have fought long and hard for their freedom and rights, is much more press-friendly (and UN friendly) then saying, “we really need to get rid of this cluster of anti-American regimes in the Middle East”.
        I hope my response made sense. It is great to actually have a back-and-forth discussion about this.

  5. Now Obama has warned Syria against the use of chemical weapons. UK too joins US in warning Syria.

    Bullies are out again, against yet another sovereign middle-east country. The lie has been started by US President; head of 51st US state, Cameron, is singing along. World has seen this duet before – last time, the lyrics contained “WMD”; this time the followers of Goebbels chant “chemical weapons”. http://wp.me/p1FXBz-ca

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